Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, May 4, 2018

The Weekly Brief - May 4, 2018

Pompeo on the job

It the first week on the job for new Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. His first few days on the job drew early praise from observers, which is a good indicator because it's been a pretty busy week.

Turkey snaps to it

The up-and-down political fortunes of Turkey continue as President Erdogan called snap elections this week that will be held next month. This comes as the United States State Department released a report on human rights abuses within Turkey and the Turkish economy continues to falter due to the high inflation. In other words, it hasn't been a good few months for Erdogan and he's unlikely to turn that ship around before the scheduled elections next year.

By holding elections now he preserves the possibility of a victory that he doesn't have to massage too much. Meanwhile, events in Syria and the broader region seem to be pushing Turkey back towards Washington’s sphere of influence.

Whack-a-Proxy

Some of those events pushing Turkey back towards cooperating with it's US ally surround Iran and its ongoing proxy conflicts in the region. May 12th marks the day when President Trump will decide whether to stay in or get out of the JCPOA. This decision comes as two major developments emerged in Iran’s adventurist foreign policy efforts in the Middle East.

First, Israel and Iran continue to ratchet up there saber rattling as prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently discussed the ways in which Iran has failed to live up to their end of the nuclear agreement.

Second, it emerged that Iran has been supporting the Polisario and its fight against Morocco in Western Sahara by sending Hezbollah trainers to Algeria to train Polisario fighters. Morocco promptly ended diplomatic relations with Iran, which moves the kingdom firmly into the Saudi-led anti-Iran bloc. For its part, the US was quick to back Moroccan actions.

This vast expansion and distance of Iran's proxy war foreign policy come on the heels of UN condemnation of the Polisario in their actions in Western Sahara.

In the US, Donald Trump received some pretty strong backing from foreign policy veterans on the Iran agreement. Notably, Condoleezza Rice, former National Security Adviser and Secretary of State under George Bush noted that America would be fine getting out of the agreement. The American Enterprise Institute gave research-backed impetus to withdraw by offering details on how Iran has violated their side of the nuclear agreement.

The (steel) ties that bind

The steel tariffs continue to make news as President Trump announced delays on rolling out the steel tariffs on US allies in Europe after visits from Macron and Merkel last week. South Korea was another US ally that seems to be escaping any punishment by the tariffs.

The picture that seems to emerge is one of the tariffs meant to target China, not allies. China could very well be the one country that suffers the most from US steel tariffs as Asia Times reports on possible “cracks” in the Chinese political economy. The Chinese economy can little afford any type of setback especially in strategic material like steel as they are putting ever-increasing amounts of money into their military.

Denuclearizing North Korea

The new Secretary of State doesn't just have the Middle East to worry about. Pompeo must also work to prepare Trump for his upcoming diplomatic engagement with Kim Jong Un of North Korea. The way forward may have been made slightly easier in last week's meeting between the North and South Korean leaders where they emphasized their desire to build a peaceful peninsula based on friendship.

In another show of goodwill, this last week nuclear experts were invited by North Korea to view the shutdown of a North Korean nuclear test site, which Chinese seismologists confirm may have already been shut down. Stratfor asks if North Korea can actually give up its nukes and remain a stable country, which is a big question going into these negotiations. It’s a question that New York Times columnist, Bret Stephens answers with a snarky, “No.”