Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, March 30, 2018

The Weekly Brief - March 30, 2018

Deus ex Xi?

There's one big story to talk about and that is a massive breakthrough in the drama surrounding North Korea. This week, China confirmed that Kim Jong Un had traveled to China to meet with President Xi Jinping.

Significant? Absolutely. Not only is this the first time Kim has traveled outside NoKo, but China also confirmed that North Korea is willing to talk with the US about denuclearization. So now you have both South Korea and China confirming Kim’s intentions. That's what we know. What we don't know is what China's endgame is in this scenario.

Clearly, it's to increase their heft as a global diplomatic power, but to what ends? Acting as a peace broker between the United States and North Korea would certainly burnish its image. And there are geopolitical implications as well.

A China that is perceived as being willing to deeply invest in diplomatic initiatives with high stakes is going to be seen as a China that is willing to back up its other major endeavors like the Belt and Road initiative. It also acts as a certain one-up in the diplomatic game with the United States as the US has failed to make any headway on conflicts it has invested in such as the Palestinian-Israeli peace process.

And this diplomatic breakthrough seems to have already borne fruit. Some sources suggest that tunneling at a North Korean nuclear testing facility is slowing down.

Also, keep your eyes on the diplomatic calendar this month as the different players jockey for position. Japanese Prime Minister Abe is meeting Trump on April 18 and North and South Korea are holding a summit on April 27.

How to keep guns relevant: Connect them to everything

The internet is weird. As news cycles try to keep the issue of gun control on the front page all sorts of stories surrounding gun violence begin to surface. In the wake of last Saturday's March for Our Lives, FiveThirtyEight reports that gun policy is already beginning to change.

However, that might not be enough for many of the Marchers as taking a cursory glance at their rhetoric suggests that action must be bold, dramatic and very public. The drama and emotionalism that has come to characterize this new wave of student activism has an odd parallel according to The Federalist in Pentecostal child preachers.

I thought that was an odd enough parallel, but then the North Africa Post ran a story suggesting that gun violence in the United States, or rather the perception of gun violence, might actually help Morocco win it's bid to host the 2026 World Cup.

Unless we think America is in some unique spasm of violence or that school shootings are a “new normal,” Politico runs an interesting story that takes us back to one of the earliest school shootings to engender a national debate on guns.

One person’s trade war is another person’s opportunity

As Trump's tariffs and trade war-mongering swing into effect, they don’t seem to be negatively impacting consumers’ view of the economy.

Interestingly enough, even as many worry about a trade war with China, Pew Research shares that tariffs today are actually at one of their lowest points in American history.

Africa’s mixed economic bag

The Council on Foreign Relations reports that the largest free-trade deal in Africa was signed in Kigali this week which promises to open up large areas for economic development.

However, one of the largest economies on the continent, South Africa, recently passed a law that now allows the government to seize land by white farmers without compensation. Considering the devastating effects such a policy had on Zimbabwe in the 1980s this could cause a capital flight that might undercut the benefits of free trade. And this occurs as sub-Saharan Africans continue to stream north seeking out economic 0pportunity in Europe.

The more you know...

It may seem like I focus only a few major topics or themes in this newsletter. That's because I don't think reading just one or two articles, or even a paragraph of my type will deepen anyone's understanding of a given issue. So I like to camp on a topic for a little while. Harvard Business Review seems to agree. They publish findings from a study that suggests knowing just a little about something makes us overconfident. Food for thought.