Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, March 16, 2018
The Weekly Brief - March 16, 2018
Cloudy with a chance of Bitcoin
An even higher level overview than what I achieve in these weekly briefs can be had from Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor) in their Second-Quarter Forecast. Worth the read as the trends they cite are stories I don’t often see reported on.
Trumplomacy
The big story over the last week on the diplomatic front is the upcoming meeting between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, but North Korea wasn't the only diplomatic effort that the president is preparing for.
This week is also Donald Trump's first major summit with leaders in Latin America which Richard Feinberg in the Americas Quarterly suggests could be an opportunity for Trump to make headway in a difficult diplomatic setting without quite the level of death and destruction on the line.
Pomp-eo and Consequences
Generally speaking, Rex Tillerson was one of those Secretaries of State that people found almost universally puzzling and ineffective. However, to many observers, the timing of Tillerson's firing this week on the cusp of major diplomatic summit's as noted above seems strange.
It stands to reason, though, that Trump is going to want a team of people he trusts around him as he prepares for high-level negotiations and many believe that the new Sec State, Mike Pompeo is just the man to turn around the State Department and its relationship with the White House.
Of course, some might see this just as Trump replacing an individual who would tell him “no” with someone who will say “yes” but that may be oversimplifying the matter.
Authoritarianism, Democracy, and the Millennials
Looking around the world these days one may see what appears to be a wave of populism and various forms of authoritarianism. The recent change to China's constitution that makes president Xi Jinping president for life is the cherry on top this authoritarian sundae. That, combined with America's own questions about its democratic future can make for fairly pessimistic news.
But Americans still favor democracy by large margins and French president Emmanuel Macron is working to build his approach to democratic politics into a continental movement as a check against some of these more authoritarian populist drives (or as merely an expansion of French influence). And the Council on Foreign Relations reports that authoritarians are not nearly as strong as they appear.
Does that mean the future of democracy is secure? Not necessarily. Pew Research notes that less democratic countries are showing a preference for Russian and Chinese models of governance. Additionally, The Atlantic reports that what could be driving the “radicalization” of Americans are the algorithms they depend on to serve up their YouTube videos.
So there's work to be done and the question is are Millennials and Generation Z up for it? Pew Research again notes that there are some distinctions between these two groups and seeks to define some of them On one particular issue, gun control, Daily Signal cites several polls that suggest Millennials may not be as progressive in their views on gun control as the new cycle would suggest. I’m not sure what it means for democracy, but where else would I put that link?
Is it a wave or isn’t it?
Pending official results, does the special election in the Pennsylvania 18th Congressional district provide yet another concerning sign for Republicans that their hold on power tenuous?
According to President Trump, the Democrat won because he was like Trump, which The Federalist points out, is somewhat the case. The young, fresh-faced Conor Lamb is vocally opposed to the leadership and policies of Nancy Pelosi and did a TV spot with an AR-15. Hardly the type of Democrat that the party would typically celebrate.
If anything, the Pennsylvania election suggests that swing states are becoming even more “swingier” as Democrats look less Democrat and Republicans look less Republican. A key note of context on special elections:
Daily Signal listed elections and special elections for state and federal offices that have been run in the first year of Trump's administration and, surprisingly to me, Republicans and Democrats have split those elections. Not sure what that means for the wave thesis, but it at least suggests that the Dems need more than “anti-Trump” to run on.
NoKo Summit
Following the immediate heady reaction to the sudden invitation from North Korea to Donald Trump, cooler heads are beginning to more seriously consider the potential risks and outcomes connected with such a summit. Asia Times runs two stories that look at the South Korea-Japanese-US relationship in the context of the summit, suggesting that the summit could alienate Japan and South Korea even though Japan itself might conduct its own summit with Kim Jong-Un.
Think tanks like the Brookings Institute were quick to provide unsolicited advice on what the administration needs to do to prepare for the summit, but others are urging caution ahead of the summit as this is a recognizable page of the North Korean diplomatic playbook: Offer concessions, get a good photo op and some sanctions lifted, and change as little as possible.
China vs. India... Fight?
The Asia Times is one of the only publications I'm coming across that consistently picks up on the growing India-China rivalry. After border skirmishes between Indian and Chinese troops earlier this year, the PLA is pushing for its troops to become multilingual and China is making overtures to India to develop diplomatic relations.
That sounds good, doesn't it? Sure, until you take in consideration that China may be getting a shipment of advanced Russian fighters and at least one US admiral is pushing for India to receive advanced fighters from the US, ostensibly as a counter move.
The Council on Foreign Relations also reports on India and Vietnam developing deeper ties. these developments of deepening Indian-American ties and Indian ties with regional neighbors is not lost on China as they seek to peacefully prevent the rise of one rival, even as they try to surpass another.
The new front in the War on Terror: Algeria and Sub-Saharan Africa
Earlier this year, I shared several stories on the debate surrounding the Authorization of the Use of Military Force (AUMF) in light of America’s spreading counterterrorism operations. Lawfare takes a look at one of the most recent documents to come out of this debate, the War Powers Report and provides a useful summary.
Such analysis comes not a moment too soon as the North Africa Post suggests that US troops may have already been deployed to Algeria, a first, and the Council on Foreign Relations is outlining the emerging security theatre of sub-Saharan Africa.
While US troops might be in Algeria as part of support operations in the Sahel, Algeria itself may become an area of concern as its economy continues to decline and its government faces challenges from a small, but vocal Islamist fundamentalist faction.