Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, March 9, 2018
The Weekly Brief - March 9, 2018
Pyongyang should be lovely in the spring
With the Olympics over the question was will it be back to “normal” with US-North Korean relations? The Council on Foreign Relations certainly saw a future of ongoing North Korea provocations over their nuclear program.
HOWEVER, on March 5th South Korean envoys flew to North Korea for the first time in six years to meet their North Korean counterparts. The next day (March 6) South Korea reported that the North was willing to talk to the US.
Then, the shocker of shockers came yesterday as South Korea notified President Trump of a North Korea invitation for direct talks between the leaders of the two countries, which Trump readily accepted. In the words of Ron Burgundy:
Ji whiz!
Pundits will immediately rush to determine what could possibly have created such a reversal of North Korean behavior and policy. However, what looms large (figuratively and literally) in the background is North Korea's only ally, China.
It's unclear to what degree China influenced North Korea’s thinking, however, China is riding a wave of real and perceived prestige. On the science and technology front, Asia Times reports that China has passed the US in its volume of research on the human genome. Economically, China continues the expansion of its Belt and Road initiative.
Politically, Beijing has signaled stability to the Chinese people and the world by removing constitutional limits on how many terms president Xi Jinping can serve. President Xi is now an absolute dictator in all but name. Brookings provides a short primer on the essential “need to knows” of this new development in Chinese politics.
China still faces strategic concerns, most notably in the South China Sea where the British Navy has joined the United States in conducting freedom of navigation operations in the contested waters around China's illegal islands and military bases.
It's not just the naval alliances that are building up to contest Chinese expansion into the South China Sea either. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discusses the value of the burgeoning India-US alliance in securing the Indian Ocean against further Chinese expansion. However, Asia Times suggests that such an alliance creates a strategic dilemma for India in that it must now be prepared for a two-front war with Pakistan and China.
Into Africa
China is becoming the common thread in this week's newsletter, as new reports of Chinese investment in Africa indicate its increasing focus there. American foreign policy in Africa is also receiving new focus this week as Secretary of State Rex Tillerson begins a trip to the continent. It's not surprising that the US and China are giving attention to Africa as the continent is becoming increasingly economically dynamic. However, Harvard Business Review wonders if Africa tech companies and startups will be able to compete with the behemoths of Facebook and Google.
“No steel for you!”
In a rare show of unity this week, Republicans and Democrats alike joined in condemning Donald Trump's move to place tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Across the political spectrum of think tanks and news blogs, the tariffs came in for biting criticism. The Atlantic ascribes this move to Trump’s sense of America First economic nationalism while the Daily Signal discusses how this would hurt American workers. The Council on Foreign Relations talks about the impact of the tariffs on the global economy in triggering trade wars with the biggest sources of steel for America, Canada, and the European Union.
Later this week, Mexico and Canada received exemptions on steel exports to the US, but this still leaves the EU, notably Britain and Germany on the outs. While most of the analysis was focused on the economics of the tariffs, Yuval Levin took the time to discuss how this move constitutes yet another warning sign of the dangers of a Trump presidency.
“If Osgiliath falls….”
In the ongoing concerns over the future of Western democracy, the Council on Foreign Relations notes a rising tide of authoritarianism and the retreat of democracy around the world. The Atlantic, placing most of the blame on right and conspiracy theorists, expresses concern over the increasing levels of mistrust in American institutions.
However, conservative Daily Signal notes that institutional mistrust does not just come from the right wing but also from the left as it detailed Russia's efforts to use fake news and social media to disrupt the Keystone XL pipeline development. If the right-wing conspiracy theories fear political institutions, left-wing conspiracy theories fear economic institutions. Sounds like Russia knows us pretty well.
Five Stars for Populism in EU
New York Times columnist David Brooks expresses his own concerns over the future of democracy not looking at the United States, but at the recent elections across the pond in Italy. The Italian elections saw the emergence of the populist Five Star Movement winning significant numbers of legislative seats which spells possible further disruption to Europe's third-largest economy and the EU at large.
The success of populists in Italy comes at a time when core European leaders France and Germany are dealing with their own internal political chaos. Der Spiegel reports on the finally instated coalition government under Angela Merkel as being a weak coalition that doesn't seem to have anybody excited about the prospects for decisive leadership on a continent desperately in need of it.
Iran and the future of the Middle East
An article in the recent edition of Foreign Affairs details the increasing influence Iran plays in the Middle East. Many news and analysis pieces over the last week demonstrate that fact. The Hudson Institute outlines Iran’s growing influence in Yemen as an attempt to influence trade and traffic in the Red Sea.
Al-Monitor reports on the region bracing for a renewed Israeli conflict with Iran's proxy Hezbollah in and around Syria. Qatar and its ongoing diplomatic spat with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Coast Countries mark yet another arena in which Iran’s influences felt. As Qatar draws closer to Iran, it provides Tehran with an ally on the opposite side of the strategic Straits of Hormuz.
As Iran’s influence grows in the region, security experts will have to consider the spread of Islamist groups to other parts of the Muslim world as Sunni countries seek to limit Shia Iran’s influence. The Council on Foreign Relations notes that this trend is already underway in Southeast Asia.
Random Reads
I don't have any good category for these next two articles, but I thought that they were worth adding.
The first story is a column from Daily Signal written by an American combat veteran who is now a reporter and writes on his experience interviewing and being embedded with Ukrainian soldiers in the eastern Donbas region fighting separatists and Russian Mercenaries. It's an excellent piece of war journalism that could probably only be written by someone who has had direct combat experience.
The Brookings Institute published a photo album by fellow Tamara Wittes who took a recent trip to Saudi Arabia. The 20 or so photos, with accompanying captions, from a regional expert, provide both an insightful and analytical look into a close ally of the United States that remains a mystery to most Americans.