Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief, February 16, 2018

The Weekly Brief - February 16, 2018

How Do You Solve a Problem Like the Donald?

The big political story in the United States this week is twofold: the increasing approval ratings for Donald Trump combined with the elimination of the Democratic lead on the generic ballot ahead of the midterm elections.

Just why that is remains unclear and has multiple interpretations. Some would argue such change is indicative of the impact Trump is having on American politics at large while others will argue that it's because the Democrats have taken their foot off the gas pedal of resistance. Either way, this is going to have an impact in upcoming policy battles.

If You Build It, Will They Fund?

Those policy battles will grow out of the new budget for the fiscal year 2019. Off the top, many critics looked at the budget and immediately concluded that it was a typical Trump policy: all over the place. However, Brookings points out that the real audience for the budget proposal isn't policymakers, but the voting public.

The two most hotly debated aspects of the budget are its massive costs and its proposed infrastructure updates. The two are actually linked. Because of the proposed major investment in the apparently crumbling infrastructure, the budget is proposing some major deficit spending.

In order to justify such spending, the infrastructure has to be in pretty bad shape. AEI argues that it is not. FiveThirtyEight argues that heavy deficit on the back of a booming economy is not necessarily a recipe for ongoing economic health.

Indicative of that booming economy is the news that by 2022 America is set to become a energy net exporter.

This isn't to say there aren't some things in the infrastructure that need addressing. There actually are and the budget does touch on those as Brookings points out. In many respects, the ongoing Improvement in the American economy is helping the Trump administration gain some support outside the United States.

With a budget “settled” attention now turns to healthcare and immigration as the major upcoming policy battles.

Turkey and Russia and Syria and Iran and US…. Anyone Not Invited to this Party?

You really can't say “Syria” anymore without thinking about the United States, Turkey, Russia, and Iran. It's a pretty toxic brew in a conflict where Assad seems to have finally gotten the upper hand.

Though the Syrian war is far from winding down Russia has already begun something of a drawdown of troop levels but that doesn't change its policy of power projection, nor the danger of an accidental run-in with the US.

Stumbling into some kind of great power conflict is probably not in Russian best interest, but taking actions not in your best interest is a memo Turkey apparently missed as it continues its offensive in the Afrin region in its bid to be seen as a regional power broker.

This creates all sorts of awkwardness for the US as Turkey is supposedly a NATO ally though it is certainly positioning itself as a regional rival to the United States.

This is only going to get more tricky as American troop levels in Iraq and Syria are going to be maintained. The US troops in Iraq and Syria are there to fight ISIS (officially), but their close proximity to Russian troops and Iranian-backed forces creates a pretty tense situation that can reignite a broader conflict.

Tangentially related to this conflict, Brookings provides an interesting take on Russia’s sense of historical self and War on the Rocks discusses how the US can wean Eastern European NATO members off of Russian weapons systems.

And While We’re Talking About Iran...

Despite recent protests in Iran that had criticized Iran's foreign adventures, Iran continues to remain involved in the Syrian theater. With the shooting down of an Iranian drone by the Israelis, followed by the downing of an Israeli jet in Syria, conflict between Iran and Israel in that theater seems increasingly likely.

However, how far Iran can go in projecting its power is becoming something of an issue of interest. The Iranian economy certainly has its struggles not the least of which is with its currency. In an odd twist of economic and security policy intertwining, the Iranian police needed to intervene last week in an attempt to stabilize the Iranian currency.

According to AEI’s Kenneth Pollack, now may be the time for America to push Iran back a bit.

Are You Watching Closely?

When it comes to China, we’re very concerned about China's ever closer march to overtaking America in global dominance. Though such concerns routinely show up in political rhetoric, the Council on Foreign Relations suggests that we’re not nearly as concerned about China as we should be on the policy level.

That being said, America is not China's only major concern. China's not so powerful yet that it's not without fear of rivals, particularly ones on its border. Ongoing border incursions on the India-China border are indicative of a great power competition of a more serious nature. A China-India conflict would have major repercussions on the Asian continent and the world at large.

Additionally, China’s vaunted Belt and Road initiative appears to have not performed as well in 2017 as it expected.

Competition with India and a less than stellar economic initiative may require a greater diplomatic engagement with the United States than China would like to at this point it's ascendancy.

This as Stratfor notes a global economic economy that is in flux with as yet unknown outcomes.

Bloody Noses and Cracked Alliances

With the start of the Winter Olympics, it would seem that tensions on the Korean Peninsula have cooled down after a renewal of North and South Korea diplomacy that saw a united Korean team take the field in Pyeongchang. But one shouldn't get too optimistic.

While North Korea has certainly demonstrated itself to be a deft political operator when it comes to sports diplomacy, such diplomacy has its limits. For the moment, however, North Korea seems to have the diplomatic upper hand.

Vice President Pence indicated as such by stating that if North Korea wants to talk with America, then the US would be receptive. It's a pretty startling turn around really. We've gone from “fire and fury” to “bloody noses” to being willing to talk. While some say North Korea wins and America loses in such an exchange little attention has been given to South Korea President Moon who has been given the golden opportunity to burnish his reputation as a peacemaker. Will he deliver?

Into Africa

It’s easy to get caught up in events in Asia and the Middle East, but the United States cannot take its eye off of Africa where ongoing electoral infighting has led Kenya to the brink of civil war.

Meanwhile, major questions remain over America's continuing military involvement on the continent as terrorist networks seek to gain footholds on the continent.

Brookings also points out that ending global poverty is going to require a major investment in Africa.

Between security and economic concerns, ignoring Africa policy is not a good idea.