Tim Talks Politics: The Weekly Brief, February 9, 2018
The Weekly Brief - February 9, 2018
The Trump Slump
Well, the stock market had to come down sooner or later and when it did come down in the last week it was by over 1,000 points one of the largest single-day point drops in history. But if you look at the percentage of the stock market decline it was not nearly as drastic as the points indicated. Of course, the Trump Slump got people thinking how this was going to impact the president's approval ratings.
But, beyond the political, a change in market behavior is also a good opportunity to think about the condition of the economy given that the stock market is not always the best indicator. Brookings reports that the 2018 employment record, so far, is quite strong even as America faces increasing trade challenges from China.
However, one thing the stock market or job reports do not capture is the rising cost of living for many families. Politico runs a fascinating story on alternatives to rising healthcare costs and Bizpac Review reports on the California city of Stockton’s new policy of universal basic income for low-income families.
One thing that hasn't changed since the crash of 2008 is that wages are not keeping pace with inflation and the cost of living continues to increase. This is creating a situation where people and organizations are finding creative ways of paying for life’s necessities. The question is, to what degree are they sustainable?
Nunes, Russians, and Memos, oh My!
I honestly have not really followed the Trump-Russia collusion story that much mostly because there was never any strong evidence to countenance something like impeachment. I suppose that could always change but, politically speaking, it was always clear that the Democrats wanted to give the Republicans the Benghazi treatment.
That being said, the Nunes memo of the last week was kind of interesting to me in that it was expected to be some kind of political bombshell. Unfortunately, it turned into what the whole Russia story has been on Capitol Hill: an incredibly biased story that says more about who’s reporting than what's being reported.
Predictably, Democrats and more liberal publications were quick to align against the memo and declare it irrelevant while conservative publications and many Republican leaders jumped to the memo’s defense. So why do I share this story?
It's because it illustrates why I write this newsletter dominantly with sources from international, independent and academic media outlets: Without these sources, watching politics is just another reality show drama.
But there are very serious things happening worth paying attention to. In the midst of it all War on the Rocks asks a really important question: could President Obama have stopped the Russian cyber attack during the elections? Politico which is doing an unheralded job of producing bipartisan reportage on the Russia story points out that while everyone's distracted with the memo, the Trump Administration is quietly an end run around Congress and weakening the Russia sanctions regime.
Budgets and Cost Effects
On Main Street America we say “another day, another dollar.” On Capitol Hill America they say “another day, another shut down.” With another shutdown narrowly averted (kind of) it's interesting to think about the budget and how we arrive at the astronomically high numbers in it.
The Congressional Budget Office provides us with just such an inside look. There are two numbers that the CBO checks relevant to the budget: Cost estimates and its 10-year economic forecast. For the wonkier of you, here are some insights into how the CBO goes about establishing cost estimates and economic forecasts.
The Middle East’s Two-Tiered Conflict Zone
I know I talk a lot about the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region but I can't help it when it's my core area of research. It takes up a disproportionate amount of my news consumption. In my defense, I would argue that this also reflects the region's generally weighted impact on global politics. So I think it is important to keep one eye firmly focused on the region especially if this year is to be a year of civil unrest as London's Chatham House indicates.
This isn’t to say that civil unrest is not happening, however, it’s just that with Turkey's incursion into Syria there's been more emphasis on state-level power politics lately.
But we shouldn't ignore the ongoing civil conflicts either. For example, the civil war in Yemen continues on apace beyond the view of much of the world media. Asia Times reports on how the war is affecting women in the country. And in Israel, a heated debate is occurring over the stability of Gaza and the role the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli government should be playing in addressing it.
The South China Sea… Still a Thing
With the focus of America's age of foreign policy being directed towards North Korea, it seems that we have forgotten that China continues to expand its sphere of influence in the South China Sea. The Carnegie Endowment provides some good insight into the diplomatic implications of this reality on the Indo-Pacific region.
Side note: that phrase “Indo-Pacific region” shows up in the National Security Strategy that was released last December and it includes the Indian subcontinent in America's strategic Asian perspective in a way that it hasn't before. China’s South China Sea expansion thus has implications for India's continued rise as a regional power. Look for India-US relations to be a major element in the SCS going forward.
Going to the Problem
Victor Davis Hanson, writing for the Hoover Institution, provided a great essay in National Review this week about the location and International leadership. Why is the UN headquartered in New York? Why is NATO headquartered in Brussels? Hanson suggests that we move the headquarters of these major international organizations to countries and locations that are close to areas of concern. For example, NATO's increasing focus on Mediterranean security may make the island of Crete a better location, or perhaps the UN should be moved from New York to Nigeria or Singapore.
For More Good Reading…
Check out my newest post on the website: What I’m Reading in 2018