Tim Talks Politics - The Weekly Brief

The Weekly Brief - January 26, 2018

Shutdown drama

With a three-day shutdown in the books to celebrate the end of Trump’s year, there was plenty of blame to get thrown around, particularly at the Democrats. Indeed, the future of the Democratic party is now a matter of open, and frequent discussion around the media. And while it’s fashionable to discuss the political winners and losers in the immediate aftermath of the shutdown, it’s worthwhile to get some perspective.

Conservative website The Daily Signal supplies a comparative perspective, comparing this shutdown to the 2013 GOP-led stoppage, and Brookings considers the economic impact of such events.

More helpful, however, is Yuval Levin’s column that asks an important question: Are two of our three branches of government even working effectively? It’s a more nuanced answer than one would initially think. Such nuance is necessary as frustration continues to grow at the expense of public trust in American institutions.

The economy

Some the angst directed at the government is surely misplaced as economic condition continues to improve despite federal insouciance, right? Maybe not, as Pew Research released a new study noting that economic issues have declined as priority policy issues for the public.

This may indicate a sense of optimism or just lack of awareness. While the economy continues to do well, there are some troubling indicators. Among them, one key observer noted this week that the global economy is facing conditions that make 2008 look mild, while the Council on Foreign Relations is skeptical of economic gains to be made by the introduction of new tariffs.

Also troubling, China just tightened rules on outbound foreign investment, which could reduce foreign investment capital in the US, which may or may not impact our rare earth metal imports.

And while these more concrete goods may spell trouble for the US economy, one sector seems to blithely continue its upward march to riches: Big tech. The Federalist suggests that maybe users should start demanding a share of the profits in that sector.

And before you think cryptocurrency is a good hedge against a bad economy, you may want to consider the security implications of increasing the value of Bitcoin.

2018 Election: The fight for the House

So the economy is doing well, but may not be a big policy draw for voters, which could make for an interesting midterm election. Battle lines are already being gerrymandered, I mean drawn… in the struggle for Congress. FiveThirtyEight is undertaking a sizable project to speculate on the difficult task of redrawing congressional districts.

Of course, such work is speculative and often forgets that too much political agreement is not always good. However, there’s got to be some happy medium between polarized gerrymandering, and a monolith, right? One group's novel solution is to recruit veterans into running for office in both parties. Either way you cut the cake or slice the difference, Politico argues, Democrat gains may not be as large as some think/hope in 2018.

“I’m not fighting a proxy war, you’re fighting a proxy war!”

With President Trump’s State of the Union this week on the heels of his National Security Strategy, it’ll be interesting to see the developing Trump approach to foreign policy. Coming off of VP Pence’s Mid East trip that region should factor large. Syria, not the least.

The Turkish incursion into northern Syria even as America builds its own forces in the region makes for a crowded neighborhood as Bashar al Assad continues to recover control over large areas of the country. For the millions who have lost their homes and livelihoods, a return to normalcy seems a long way off.

Arab Spring sequel stuck in development

With mass protests in Tunisia and Iran this month, some wondered if this was the start of another Arab Spring. However, I argue that this is a shortsighted view bereft of context. Governments in the region have gotten adept at responding to protests (they kind of cycle) with “micro-reforms” changes that at least partially address grievances while leaving regimes untouched.

The Iranian president has already taken such steps and Egypt has as well (perhaps in a preemptive move). Meanwhile, Tunisian authorities scored a security victory by killing a senior Al Qaeda commander, which is also good political capital in a restive region.

Europe and the Allies

With all the “First of Trump” analyses, I haven’t seen much on how America’s allies have weathered it all. It would seem, across the pond, that Europa has ninety-nine problems at the Trump ain’t one.

The largest regional economy (EU) is facing a rising Eurasian challenge globally, and a potentially unsettling Italian election locally. Meanwhile, the EU’s fraught relationship with Turkey post Erdogan’s Paris disaster has the region bracing for a fresh wave of refugees. Is French President Macron up to his claimed role as the EU’s chief diplomat?

Updates - Korea

OK, everyone was excited about a unified Winter Olympic Team Korea…. Except those who weren’t. Regardless, navigating a nuclear North Korea is something we continue to wrestle with. War on the Rocks offers a unique take on North Korean nukes: How we handle a nuclear Pakistan.

Trouble on that dam Nile, I mean, Nile dam

That Egypt-Sudan-Ethiopia thing just isn’t going away as Ethiopia rejects World Bank mediation on its proposed dam project.

Meanwhile, south of the border...

Remember that wave of European elections that had everybody worried about a populist wave? Similar stories coming to a hemisphere near you in 2018.