February 24: Ukraine marks a grim anniversary

In which, the war in Ukraine reaches a grisly milestone, Russia and China challenge American dominance, and the Biden administration attempts to calm a rising storm of American discontent.

Ukraine marks a grim anniversary

Today marks the one year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. We’ve had a year of brutal, grinding war that has seen hundreds of thousands killed and wounded, and millions displaced.

As the world marked the grim milestone with announcements of ongoing support for Ukraine and condemnation of Russia, what appears to be the common thread across the spectrum is that no one thinks this war is ending soon. It’s a grind to the end, which raises an important question: How long can everyone go?

Both Russia and Ukraine are facing munitions shortages that even the US and Europe will struggle to meet for Ukraine, and Russia has even less to rely on in terms of outside support… unless China makes up the shortfall as it very well may. Both Ukraine and Russia will eventually face manpower shortages too as the costs of war climb. Russia, though, is likely to have a longer timeline on its manpower reserves giving Putin the option of winning, even if just Pyrrhically, a grinding war of attrition.

Low munitions and manpower reserves mean a stalemate as neither side wants to give an inch, yet neither has the strength for knockout blow.

For their part, the western allies not only face the logistical challenges of supplying arms and munitions to Ukraine in sufficient quantities, but political gaps are starting to show in terms of how America and its allies even view the end game.